Customer churn has a lead time. Most customers who cancel have been showing warning signs for weeks or months before they act, declining usage, fewer logins, support tickets that went unresolved, a billing issue that was never followed up. The problem is that those signals are distributed across your product analytics, your CRM, your billing system, and your support tool, and no one is looking at all of them together, in time to do something about it.
A churn prediction model connects those signals, learns which combinations are predictive for your specific customer base, and surfaces a ranked list of at-risk customers so your retention team can prioritise outreach. The model does not replace the retention conversation, but it tells your team who to have it with before the customer has already decided to leave. RaftLabs builds and integrates these models end to end, from data assessment through CRM delivery and ongoing monitoring.
Retention is where the economics sit. A saved customer keeps paying without the cost of winning a new one, and small gains compound across a book of business. That is why the accounts worth saving, caught while there is still time to act, are the ones a churn model exists to find.
- 25-95%
- profit lift from a 5% increase in retention
- Bain & Company
- 5-25x
- more expensive to win a new customer than to keep one
- Harvard Business Review, 2014
Capabilities
What we build
01Churn risk scoring model
A machine learning classifier trained on your labelled customer data, churned and retained, using the algorithm your data volume and interpretability needs call for. Production B2B SaaS models regularly reach AUC 0.80 to 0.90, and score calibration makes a 0.75 score mean a true 75% churn probability.
- Built with
- XGBoost · LightGBM · Logistic regression · Survival analysis
02Customer behaviour feature engineering
The quality of a churn model depends almost entirely on the features derived from your customer data: raw event logs do not predict churn, but the right summary statistics over the right time windows do. We engineer usage frequency and trend features across 7, 30, and 90 day windows, adoption depth, session trends, and support and billing health signals, with SHAP values making each customer's score explainable.
- Built with
- SHAP
03Early warning signal identification
Feature importance analysis that surfaces which specific behaviours are the strongest leading indicators of churn in your customer base, from your historical data, not generic SaaS benchmarks. SHAP plots rank the top signals and quantify lead time per signal, so a 50% decline in weekly logins that precedes churn by 45 days gives your team a 45-day intervention window.
- Built with
- SHAP
04CRM and sales tool integration
Automated delivery of updated churn scores to your CRM on a configurable weekly or daily schedule, so the score your rep sees reflects last week's behaviour, not last month's model run. Salesforce writes score, risk tier, and timestamp to custom fields and can trigger an intervention task when an account moves to High risk; HubSpot properties feed retention Workflows, with webhook delivery for custom CRMs.
- Built with
- Salesforce · HubSpot · Pipedrive · ChurnZero · Gainsight · Totango
05Churn prediction dashboard
A reporting layer for customer success team leads that shows risk distribution, model accuracy against actual outcomes, and whether retention interventions convert at-risk customers to retained. It answers "what percentage of our ARR is at high churn risk right now?" with an exportable at-risk list sorted by ARR, calibration charts that validate predictions against real churn rates, and intervention tracking that proves the retention programme works.
06Model monitoring and retraining pipeline
Automated accuracy tracking that compares predicted churn scores against actual renewal and cancellation outcomes, catching model drift before it sends your retention team after the wrong customers. Population stability index flags feature distribution shifts monthly, monthly retraining promotes a new model only if it beats the current one on a held-out set, and the MLflow registry keeps full version lineage for audit.
- Built with
- PSI · MLflow
Churn is rare. In most subscription businesses, the customers who leave in any given month are a small fraction of the base, so a model that predicts nobody churns can still look accurate. We train against that class imbalance directly, weighting the rare churn cases and judging the model on precision and recall at your operating threshold, never on raw accuracy.
A false positive is not free. Every account you flag is a call your retention team makes instead of another, and flag too many and the list turns into noise your reps stop trusting. We tune the threshold to your team's real capacity, so the accounts surfaced each week are the ones worth the outreach.
Ranking risk is not the same as knowing who to call. A pure risk score points your team at accounts that would have renewed anyway, and at a few where a clumsy save call pushes the customer toward the door. Uplift modelling targets the persuadable accounts instead, the ones where an intervention actually changes the outcome. When your history supports it, we model who to save, not just who is leaving.
Timing matters too. A churned-or-not label hides when a customer is likely to go. Survival analysis models time to churn, so your team sees roughly how long the intervention window runs.
You already have the data. You just are not using it.
Tell us what customer data you are capturing and what your current churn rate is. We will assess whether a prediction model is worth building and what accuracy you can realistically expect from your data.